Online Gambling

So — we’re about three weeks into the 2011 MLB Baseball Season. How’s your favorite team doing…? 4-12 or 12-4?

If you’re like me and a fan of the Cincinnati Reds, you’re pretty happy at the top of the National League Central Division, coming off of a 11-2 pounding of the Pirates on Saturday, a game that included the team’s first grand slam of the 2011 season.

Regardless of how your team is doing, I hope that your sportsbook betting season is in full swing. If not, it’s time to get started with a great offer from one of the top-rated US-friendly online sportsbooks, Oddsmaker. It’s a 100% match bonus, up to a grand. You must use bonus code OCGD100 when you sign up at the sportsbook in order to be eligible for this promotion.

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Use your sportsbook bonus to bet on the MLB season, the NHL and NBA playoffs, and countless number of other sports and entertainment events.

To celebrate the return of the Boys of Summer for the 2011 Major League Baseball (MLB) season, Linesmaker sportsbook is offering their largest sportsbook deposit match bonus ever offered — a whopping 50% bonus. Sportsbook deposit match bonus offers are generally in the 10%-20% range, so take advantage of this offer before it expires on March 31, 2011.

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As reported in yesterday’s The Wall Street Journal, the House Financial Services Committee voted 41-22 to approve legislation that would regulate many forms of online gambling, including poker and bingo, while specifically banning betting on major US sports leagues like the MLB, NFL, NBA, and others.

Other news articles point out that the legislation also would deny licenses to any online site that has allowed, or currently does allow, US players to gamble online. Looking ahead, this would appear to effect PokerStars, FullTilt, and other online poker rooms that have continued to serve US players despite the UIGEA of 2006.

Other key elements of the legislation include player loss limits, rigorous age verification systems and frequent testing thereof, and allowing states to opt out of this legislation and ban its citizens from online gambling.

And the legislation that was passed does not cover how the industry is to be taxed — that’s covered in a separate bill that hasn’t made it out of the House Ways and Means Committee.

It is unlikely that this legislation will be voted on before the current Congressional Session expires in September. The scheduling is simply too tight. If it is not voted on, the process will need to start again next session. Perhaps it will be attached to some other legislation, as was the UIGEA of 2006. Even so, if the legislation is approved, it still would need to be signed by Obama.

We are still years away from any comprehensive online gambling policy in the United States. Need proof? The UIGEA of 2006 took nearly 4 years before it actually went into effect this past June 1 — and there are still plenty of loopholes in that legislation that allow US players to fund and withdraw money from their online gambling accounts… or so I’ve heard.

I’ve long praised BetUS as one of the best sportsbooks on the internet; it is one of the several sportsbooks that I myself use on a regular basis. And now they’ve really outdone themselves — check out the new tiered bonus schedule for new and existing players at BetUS.

All levels of membership, BetUS clients receive the following:

· 25% New Member Referral

· 10% Gambler€™s Insurance

· Free Sports Schedules and Swimsuit Calendar

· Free Making of the Swimsuit Calendar DVD (*Deposits of $500 or more)

I like to bet on MLB totals — the total number of runs scored in a game by both teams. I have various resources that I use to determine which games to bet, including a custom-made spreadsheet and two web pages (one of which is mine that compiles statistics on MLB umpire’s tendencies when calling balls and strikes). About a week or so ago, I was doing my normal research and decided that I liked the UNDER 10.5 @ -115 in the Angels v Rangers game, and found the best odds for the game were at BetUS Sportsbook, an online sportsbook that accepts real-money wagers from US players.

Take a look at the card below, a screen capture of some of the day’s bets.

Note that the game immediately above the Angles v Rangers game — Indians v Rays — was also UNDER 10.5 @ -115. Well, I mistakenly bet the Indians v Rays game. I noticed immediately after I confirmed the bet by entering my password and clicking the Confirm button on the BetUS website.

I immediately called the BetUS toll-free customer service line ( 1-800-588-5586 ) and was quickly connected to a representative. I explained what I had done and asked to have the bet cancelled. The rep explained that it was against their policy to cancel bets once they were confirmed, but I asked that he take a look at the card and see how such a mistake could have been made. The rep put me on hold, conferred with his supervisor, and allowed me to switch the bet that I had made on the Indians v Rays with my intended bet on the Angels v Rangers.

Now that’s great customer service!

(For those that are curious, both of the games went OVER. )

Well, this is a first! No good MLB totals wagers today. I am leaning toward MIN @ CHW u9.5 and MIL @ COL u10.5, but the terms would have to move 5 points in my favor before this bet would have a positive expected value (EV). If the MIN @ CHW game moves from u9.5 -110 to -115, then I’d take that bet. Also, if the MIL @ COL game moves from u10.5 -115 to -110, I’d take that bet as well.

One of the reasons that my model did not generate any totals bets is due to the weather. As a rule of thumb, add 1/2 run when the game time temperature approaches 90F, and subtract 1/2 run when the game time temperature approaches 55F. There are six games today that are being played where it is pretty hot today, and adding the 1/2 run to these games’ totals resulted in a “no bet” for several of these games.

I read this rule of thumb regarding game time temperature in an excellent book Betting Baseball 2008 by Michael Murray. I also get MLB weather from VegasInsider.com.

Here are today’s picks, made moments ago at Intertops.

I’ve continued to post my MLB totals picks each day. Overall, I am 75-70 (51.72% winning percentage), for a net loss of $31.28 (-0.97% return on investment).

This briings to mind a point to consider if you read on the internet about a guy whose sports handicapping system is “9-3 in his last 12 SOLID LOCK PICKS” (or some similar claim). The point is this: Your record is irrelvant. What is relevant is your return on investment — how much money these picks made relative to the size of the bets that one had to make to win the money.

Here’s an illustration of my point: Suppose a handicapper claims to have a 9-3 record in his last 12. This could easily have resulted in a net loss if each of his picks was a heavy favorite, say -300 or worse. In fact, if each of his picks were at an average of -300, a 9-3 record is break even, and actually will have cost you money once you factor in the price of making deposits and withdrawals at some online sportsbooks.

I’d really love to see handicappers post their return on investment, rather than their win-loss record, when touting a sports betting system.

The last minute pick on the under of last night’s Boston/Seattle game was a winner, and it made me profitable for yesterday. This illustrates an important point about sports betting — you need to keep an eye on the lines of games that you are close to betting on, but are not getting the price or the terms that you need in order for the bet to have a positive expected value (EV).

Take the BOS @ SEA game for example. When I analyzed the game originally (hours before gametime), the line was u8 -105. My analysis of the game was for 7.3 runs, which computes to an 8% edge on the u8. Since I only wager on games where I have a 25% or higher edge, I did not make a wager on the game at that time. Fifteen minutes before the game, I took another peek at the line at Intertops, and saw that it had moved to u8.5 -105, an edge of 34% on the u8.5. I made the bet, BOS won 5-3, and I won the bet. (I hope you won, too!).

I’ve posted my MLB baseball picks for Tuesday, May 27. Today, we have 4 unders.

Overall Results

Bets for May 27, 2008

Prior Day’s Bets

 

The line in the BOS@SEA game has moved a 0.5 run from 8.0 to 8.5, while the terms remained at -105. This move makes this a good wager on the under, and I have added it as a last-minute wager to my MLB picks for the day (which are currently at 2-2).

I’ve posted today’s baseball bets that I made at Intertops. There are 5 games today that I like the under on.

Yesterday was a tough day; I went 3-6, with two of my wagers losing by a single run. However, when betting baseball, it is important to keep in mind that you are looking to achieve a winning percentage over weeks and months, not days. While it is always nice to have a winning day, there will be days when things just don’t go your way and you lose more than you win.

Prior Day’s Bets