I like to bet on MLBtotals — the total number of runs scored in a game by both teams. I have various resources that I use to determine which games to bet, including a custom-made spreadsheet and two web pages (one of which is mine that compiles statistics on MLB umpire’s tendencies when calling balls and strikes). About a week or so ago, I was doing my normal research and decided that I liked the UNDER 10.5 @ -115 in the Angels v Rangers game, and found the best odds for the game were at BetUS Sportsbook, an online sportsbook that accepts real-money wagers from US players.
Take a look at the card below, a screen capture of some of the day’s bets.
Note that the game immediately above the Angles v Rangers game — Indians v Rays — was also UNDER 10.5 @ -115. Well, I mistakenly bet the Indians v Rays game. I noticed immediately after I confirmed the bet by entering my password and clicking the Confirm button on the BetUS website.
I immediately called the BetUS toll-free customer service line ( 1-800-588-5586 ) and was quickly connected to a representative. I explained what I had done and asked to have the bet cancelled. The rep explained that it was against their policy to cancel bets once they were confirmed, but I asked that he take a look at the card and see how such a mistake could have been made. The rep put me on hold, conferred with his supervisor, and allowed me to switch the bet that I had made on the Indians v Rays with my intended bet on the Angels v Rangers.
Now that’s great customer service!
(For those that are curious, both of the games went OVER. 🙁 )
Well, this is a first! No good MLB totals wagers today. I am leaning toward MIN @ CHW u9.5 and MIL @ COL u10.5, but the terms would have to move 5 points in my favor before this bet would have a positive expected value (EV). If the MIN @ CHW game moves from u9.5 -110 to -115, then I’d take that bet. Also, if the MIL @ COL game moves from u10.5 -115 to -110, I’d take that bet as well.
One of the reasons that my model did not generate any totals bets is due to the weather. As a rule of thumb, add 1/2 run when the game time temperature approaches 90F, and subtract 1/2 run when the game time temperature approaches 55F. There are six games today that are being played where it is pretty hot today, and adding the 1/2 run to these games’ totals resulted in a “no bet” for several of these games.
Here are today’s picks, made moments ago at Intertops.
Teams
O/U
Runs
Terms
Wager $
Edge %
sea@bos
U
9.0
-110
22.00
41
bal@tor
U
8.5
100
20.00
59
tam@tex
U
9.5
-125
25.00
63
min@cws
U
8.5
-105
21.00
53
mil@col
U
9.0
-110
22.00
33
laa@oak
U
7.0
100
20.00
31
Total wagered:
130.00
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I’ve continued to post my MLB totals picks each day. Overall, I am 75-70 (51.72% winning percentage), for a net loss of $31.28 (-0.97% return on investment).
This briings to mind a point to consider if you read on the internet about a guy whose sports handicapping system is “9-3 in his last 12 SOLID LOCK PICKS†(or some similar claim). The point is this: Your record is irrelvant. What is relevant is your return on investment — how much money these picks made relative to the size of the bets that one had to make to win the money.
Here’s an illustration of my point: Suppose a handicapper claims to have a 9-3 record in his last 12. This could easily have resulted in a net loss if each of his picks was a heavy favorite, say -300 or worse. In fact, if each of his picks were at an average of -300, a 9-3 record is break even, and actually will have cost you money once you factor in the price of making deposits and withdrawals at some online sportsbooks.
I’d really love to see handicappers post their return on investment, rather than their win-loss record, when touting a sports betting system.
The last minute pick on the under of last night’s Boston/Seattle game was a winner, and it made me profitable for yesterday. This illustrates an important point about sports betting — you need to keep an eye on the lines of games that you are close to betting on, but are not getting the price or the terms that you need in order for the bet to have a positive expected value (EV).
Take the BOS @ SEA game for example. When I analyzed the game originally (hours before gametime), the line was u8Â -105. My analysis of the game was for 7.3 runs, which computes to an 8% edge on the u8. Since I only wager on games where I have a 25% or higher edge, I did not make a wager on the game at that time. Fifteen minutes before the game, I took another peek at the line at Intertops, and saw that it had moved to u8.5 -105, an edge of 34% on the u8.5. I made the bet, BOS won 5-3, and I won the bet. (I hope you won, too!).
I’ve posted my MLBbaseball picks for Tuesday, May 27. Today, we have 4 unders.
The line in the BOS@SEA game has moved a 0.5 run from 8.0 to 8.5, while the terms remained at -105. This move makes this a good wager on the under, and I have added it as a last-minute wager to my MLB picks for the day (which are currently at 2-2).
I’ve posted today’s baseball bets that I made at Intertops. There are 5 games today that I like the under on.
Teams
O/U
Runs
Terms
Wager $
Edge %
ari@atl
U
9.0
-120
24.00
63
sea@nyy
U
9.5
-105
21.00
32
laa@chw
U
8.5
-105
21.00
26
bal@tam
U
9.5
-110
22.00
37
tex@cle
U
8.5
100
20.00
67
Total wagered:
108.00
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Yesterday was a tough day; I went 3-6, with two of my wagers losing by a single run. However, when betting baseball, it is important to keep in mind that you are looking to achieve a winning percentage over weeks and months, not days. While it is always nice to have a winning day, there will be days when things just don’t go your way and you lose more than you win.
I also love betting on baseball. Not too heavily, mind you… just enough to win $20 bucks on each game that I bet on.
My approach to betting on MLB focuses on pitching in an attempt to beat the over/under totals published at my favorite sportsbook, Intertops. This season, I my winning percentage is 56.34% with a 7.43% return on wagers.
I’ve decided to start publishing my baseball picks. If you’d like to use them, be my guest. You’ll find that I pick about 4 games a day, but this could be as low as 1 and as many as 10. Today, for example, I have 9 picks. Follow the link to check out my picks each day.
I wanted to let everyone know about a special All Star Game Package for Intertops customers. All customers who bet on MLB baseball from now through June 15th have the chance to win a great MLB package containing:
Two tickets for the MLB All Star Game taking place on July 15th in New York
Four days in a 4* Hotel including breakfast
Travel expenses
Every $ wager on any Baseball bet made by June 15th 2008 is one lot for the draw, so the more you bet, the better your chance to win this great prize from Intertops.
Here’s what I have my eye on this weekend. head on over to Intertops to check out the lines.
Saturday
ALCS Game 6: Cleveland Indians at Boston Red Sox. Shilling goes for the Sox, and is looking to rebound from his poor start earlier in the series. He looked awesome against the Angles, but the Indians seems to have him figured out. Can he take the Sox to a deciding Game 7? Or will the Indians take the series and face off against the streaking Colorado Rockies in the World Series?
UFC 77 – Hostile Territory: Cincinnati Ohio native Jorge Gurgel takes on Alvin Robinson in a featured bout. Gurgel is looking to revenge an earlier defeat at the hands on Robinson. And then there is the main event, featuring Rich Franklin taking on UFC Middleweight Champion Anderson Silva. Should be a great evening of Ultimate Fighting!
Sunday
Tampa Bay @ Detroit and Chicago @ Philadelphia look to be two of the more evenly-matched games on the Week 7 NFL schedule. I’m picking both of the home teams in these two games.
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