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Monthly Archives: May 2008
MLB: May 27
The last minute pick on the under of last night’s Boston/Seattle game was a winner, and it made me profitable for yesterday. This illustrates an important point about sports betting — you need to keep an eye on the lines of games that you are close to betting on, but are not getting the price or the terms that you need in order for the bet to have a positive expected value (EV).
Take the BOS @ SEA game for example. When I analyzed the game originally (hours before gametime), the line was u8Â -105. My analysis of the game was for 7.3 runs, which computes to an 8% edge on the u8. Since I only wager on games where I have a 25% or higher edge, I did not make a wager on the game at that time. Fifteen minutes before the game, I took another peek at the line at Intertops, and saw that it had moved to u8.5 -105, an edge of 34% on the u8.5. I made the bet, BOS won 5-3, and I won the bet. (I hope you won, too!).
I’ve posted my MLB baseball picks for Tuesday, May 27. Today, we have 4 unders.
Overall Results
| W | L | W % | Wagers $ | Net $ | ROI % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | 44 | 54.17 | 2103.25 | 75.80 | 3.6 |
Bets for May 27, 2008
| Teams | O/U | Runs | Terms | Wager $ | Edge % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| chw@cle | U | 8.0 | 100 | 20.00 | 42 |
| nyy@bal | U | 9.5 | -110 | 22.00 | 31 |
| min@kan | U | 8.5 | -110 | 22.00 | 31 |
| san@ari | U | 8.0 | -120 | 24.00 | 40 |
| Total wagered: | 88.00 | Â | |||
Prior Day’s Bets
| Teams | O/U | Runs | Terms | Wager $ | Edge % | W/L | Net $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bos@sea | U | 8.5 | -105 | 21.00 | 34 | W | 20.00 |
| tex@tam | U | 8.5 | 105 | 19.05 | 85 | L | -19.05 |
| los@chc | U | 8.5 | -105 | 21.00 | 51 | W | 20.00 |
| nyy@bal | U | 9.5 | -105 | 21.00 | 67 | W | 20.00 |
| ari@atl | U | 7.5 | -115 | 23.00 | 44 | L | -23.00 |
| Total wagered: | 105.05 | Total net: | 17.95 | ||||
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Late Addition to MLB Bets for May 26
The line in the BOS@SEA game has moved a 0.5 run from 8.0 to 8.5, while the terms remained at -105. This move makes this a good wager on the under, and I have added it as a last-minute wager to my MLB picks for the day (which are currently at 2-2).
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Baseball Bets Posted for May 25
Yesterday was a winning day, going 3-2 and netting $17 on $108 in wagers.
| Teams | O/U | Runs | Terms | Wager $ | Edge % | W/L | Net $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| tex@cle | U | 8.5 | 100 | 20.00 | 67 | W | 20.00 |
| bal@tam | U | 9.5 | -110 | 22.00 | 37 | L | -22.00 |
| laa@chw | U | 8.5 | -105 | 21.00 | 26 | W | 20.00 |
| sea@nyy | U | 9.5 | -105 | 21.00 | 32 | L | -21.00 |
| ari@atl | U | 9.0 | -120 | 24.00 | 63 | W | 20.00 |
| Total wagered: | 108.00 | Total net: | 17.00 | ||||
We have 6 wagers today at Intertops, 5 unders and 1 over.
| Teams | O/U | Runs | Terms | Wager $ | Edge % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| laa@cws | U | 8.0 | -110 | 22.00 | 63 |
| bos@oak | U | 8.5 | -115 | 23.00 | 32 |
| nym@col | U | 9.5 | -125 | 25.00 | 55 |
| cin@sdg | O | 8.0 | 100 | 20.00 | 29 |
| phi@hou | U | 9.0 | -105 | 21.00 | 28 |
| bal@tam | U | 7.5 | 100 | 20.00 | 29 |
| Total wagered: | 131.00 | Â | |||
Baseball Bets Posted for May 24
I’ve posted today’s baseball bets that I made at Intertops. There are 5 games today that I like the under on.
| Teams | O/U | Runs | Terms | Wager $ | Edge % |
| ari@atl | U | 9.0 | -120 | 24.00 | 63 |
| sea@nyy | U | 9.5 | -105 | 21.00 | 32 |
| laa@chw | U | 8.5 | -105 | 21.00 | 26 |
| bal@tam | U | 9.5 | -110 | 22.00 | 37 |
| tex@cle | U | 8.5 | 100 | 20.00 | 67 |
| Total wagered: | 108.00 | Â | |||
Yesterday was a tough day; I went 3-6, with two of my wagers losing by a single run. However, when betting baseball, it is important to keep in mind that you are looking to achieve a winning percentage over weeks and months, not days. While it is always nice to have a winning day, there will be days when things just don’t go your way and you lose more than you win.
Prior Day’s Bets
| Teams | O/U | Runs | Terms | Wager $ | Edge % | W/L | Net $ |
| laa@chw | U | 9.0 | -110 | 22.00 | 62 | W | 20.00 |
| kan@tor | U | 7.0 | -105 | 21.00 | 26 | L | -21.00 |
| tex@cle | U | 9.0 | -105 | 21.00 | 58 | L | -21.00 |
| min@det | U | 9.5 | -110 | 22.00 | 49 | L | -22.00 |
| cin@sdg | U | 7.5 | -125 | 25.00 | 55 | W | 20.00 |
| nym@col | U | 10.0 | -100 | 20.00 | 59 | L | -20.00 |
| phi@hou | U | 10.5 | -105 | 21.00 | 48 | W | 20.00 |
| ari@atl | U | 9.5 | -115 | 23.00 | 47 | L | -23.00 |
| chc@pit | U | 9.0 | -120 | 24.00 | 41 | L | -24.00 |
| Total wagered: | 199.00 | Total net: | -71.00 | ||||
Baseball Bets Posted for May 24
I’ve posted today’s baseball bets that I made at Intertops. There are 5 games today that I like the under on.
| Teams | O/U | Runs | Terms | Wager $ | Edge % |
| ari@atl | U | 9.0 | -120 | 24.00 | 63 |
| sea@nyy | U | 9.5 | -105 | 21.00 | 32 |
| laa@chw | U | 8.5 | -105 | 21.00 | 26 |
| bal@tam | U | 9.5 | -110 | 22.00 | 37 |
| tex@cle | U | 8.5 | 100 | 20.00 | 67 |
| Total wagered: | 108.00 | Â | |||
Yesterday was a tough day; I went 3-6, with two of my wagers losing by a single run. However, when betting baseball, it is important to keep in mind that you are looking to achieve a winning percentage over weeks and months, not days. While it is always nice to have a winning day, there will be days when things just don’t go your way and you lose more than you win.
Prior Day’s Bets
| Teams | O/U | Runs | Terms | Wager $ | Edge % | W/L | Net $ |
| laa@chw | U | 9.0 | -110 | 22.00 | 62 | W | 20.00 |
| kan@tor | U | 7.0 | -105 | 21.00 | 26 | L | -21.00 |
| tex@cle | U | 9.0 | -105 | 21.00 | 58 | L | -21.00 |
| min@det | U | 9.5 | -110 | 22.00 | 49 | L | -22.00 |
| cin@sdg | U | 7.5 | -125 | 25.00 | 55 | W | 20.00 |
| nym@col | U | 10.0 | -100 | 20.00 | 59 | L | -20.00 |
| phi@hou | U | 10.5 | -105 | 21.00 | 48 | W | 20.00 |
| ari@atl | U | 9.5 | -115 | 23.00 | 47 | L | -23.00 |
| chc@pit | U | 9.0 | -120 | 24.00 | 41 | L | -24.00 |
| Total wagered: | 199.00 | Total net: | -71.00 | ||||
My Baseball Picks
I love baseball.
I also love betting on baseball. Not too heavily, mind you… just enough to win $20 bucks on each game that I bet on.
My approach to betting on MLB focuses on pitching in an attempt to beat the over/under totals published at my favorite sportsbook, Intertops. This season, I my winning percentage is 56.34% with a 7.43% return on wagers.
I’ve decided to start publishing my baseball picks. If you’d like to use them, be my guest. You’ll find that I pick about 4 games a day, but this could be as low as 1 and as many as 10. Today, for example, I have 9 picks. Follow the link to check out my picks each day.
Good luck!
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New Microgaming Slots for May
Calling all online slots lovers — the Microgaming network has rolled out three new slots this month.
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- Sure Win – A horse-racing themed slot with a huge win potential in the free games.
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