Category Archives: free picks

analysis, football, free picks, NCAA football, online gambling, US players

(10) South Carolina (4-1) at Kentucky (3-3)

Kentucky (opened +7, currently +5) looks to be the spot play here against South Carolina, after the Gamecock’s biggest win in school history last week over then-top-ranked Alabama. While Spurrier has never lost to Kentucky, you have to think that his squad may be looking past their next opponents. Add South Carolina stinks on the road.

Another way to play this game would be to tease Kentucky with another home dog, perhaps Hawaii (opened +9.5, currently +6.5).

Get the latest NCAAF odds at US-player-friendly Intertops, BetUS, and OddsMaker.

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free picks, March Madness, NCAA basketball, review, sportsbook, US players

Great Service Experience at Intertops

Intertops is a 5-star rated site at The Online Casino Gambling Directory. Yesterday, I had an experience which confirmed their best-of-the-best 5-star rating.

I’ve been a bit distracted with helping to take care of my mother as she recovers from successful hip replacement surgery. As a result, I only have a few minutes a day to place wagers on the sporting events that I am interested in. Yesterday, I saw a great over on Thursday’s Missouri v Memphis game, and liked it for 2.5 units; however, I inadvertently made the wager for 3 units.

This is no big deal, really — I placed an extra half wager than I intended. But, I thought that I would give Intertops a call and see if they could modify my wager.

I called Intertops on the phone and a customer service rep answered almost immediately. I explained that I wanted to reduce my wager on the Missouri v Memphis game. She explained that it is the policy of Intertops to not modify a wager once it is placed. I understood and expected this response — confirming an online wager is equivalent to walking away from a betting window at the track or a book; all bets are now final.

However, she went on to say that she would check to see if an exception could be made. After a 2 minute hold, she came back on the line and said that they had made an exception and cancelled the wager.

Wow. I was surprised, but I guess not too much. Intertops has long been a 5-star site, and I suppose the fact that I have been a loyal customer of theirs for years and had never made such a request may have been a factor in their granting the exception…. but still, they took care of my exceptional request, and I wanted to let everyone know about it.

Now, I’m not saying to get into the habit of placing and then trying to cancel bets, nor am I saying that Intertops will always honor a bet cancellation request. I’m just saying that with Intertops, if you do make a mistake and want to cancel a wager, they’ll at least consider your request.

Oh. By the way — take the over in the Missouri v Memphis game. Good luck!

(Note: The information present on this blog is intended for entertainment purposes only. Please check your local, state and provincial laws before you gamble online. If your local laws prohibit online gambling then we recommend you consider an alternative form of entertainment.)

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baseball, free picks, MLB, rant, sportsbook, tips

MLB: June 6

Here are today’s picks, made moments ago at Intertops.

Teams O/U Runs Terms Wager $ Edge %
sea@bos U 9.0 -110 22.00 41
bal@tor U 8.5 100 20.00 59
tam@tex U 9.5 -125 25.00 63
min@cws U 8.5 -105 21.00 53
mil@col U 9.0 -110 22.00 33
laa@oak U 7.0 100 20.00 31
Total wagered: 130.00  

I’ve continued to post my MLB totals picks each day. Overall, I am 75-70 (51.72% winning percentage), for a net loss of $31.28 (-0.97% return on investment).

This briings to mind a point to consider if you read on the internet about a guy whose sports handicapping system is “9-3 in his last 12 SOLID LOCK PICKS” (or some similar claim). The point is this: Your record is irrelvant. What is relevant is your return on investment — how much money these picks made relative to the size of the bets that one had to make to win the money.

Here’s an illustration of my point: Suppose a handicapper claims to have a 9-3 record in his last 12. This could easily have resulted in a net loss if each of his picks was a heavy favorite, say -300 or worse. In fact, if each of his picks were at an average of -300, a 9-3 record is break even, and actually will have cost you money once you factor in the price of making deposits and withdrawals at some online sportsbooks.

I’d really love to see handicappers post their return on investment, rather than their win-loss record, when touting a sports betting system.

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baseball, free picks, MLB, sportsbook

MLB: May 27

The last minute pick on the under of last night’s Boston/Seattle game was a winner, and it made me profitable for yesterday. This illustrates an important point about sports betting — you need to keep an eye on the lines of games that you are close to betting on, but are not getting the price or the terms that you need in order for the bet to have a positive expected value (EV).

Take the BOS @ SEA game for example. When I analyzed the game originally (hours before gametime), the line was u8 -105. My analysis of the game was for 7.3 runs, which computes to an 8% edge on the u8. Since I only wager on games where I have a 25% or higher edge, I did not make a wager on the game at that time. Fifteen minutes before the game, I took another peek at the line at Intertops, and saw that it had moved to u8.5 -105, an edge of 34% on the u8.5. I made the bet, BOS won 5-3, and I won the bet. (I hope you won, too!).

I’ve posted my MLB baseball picks for Tuesday, May 27. Today, we have 4 unders.

Overall Results

W L W % Wagers $ Net $ ROI %
52 44 54.17 2103.25 75.80 3.6

Bets for May 27, 2008

Teams O/U Runs Terms Wager $ Edge %
chw@cle U 8.0 100 20.00 42
nyy@bal U 9.5 -110 22.00 31
min@kan U 8.5 -110 22.00 31
san@ari U 8.0 -120 24.00 40
Total wagered: 88.00  

Prior Day’s Bets

Teams O/U Runs Terms Wager $ Edge % W/L Net $
bos@sea U 8.5 -105 21.00 34 W 20.00
tex@tam U 8.5 105 19.05 85 L -19.05
los@chc U 8.5 -105 21.00 51 W 20.00
nyy@bal U 9.5 -105 21.00 67 W 20.00
ari@atl U 7.5 -115 23.00 44 L -23.00
Total wagered: 105.05 Total net: 17.95

 

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baseball, free picks, sportsbook

Baseball Bets Posted for May 25

Yesterday was a winning day, going 3-2 and netting $17 on $108 in wagers.

Teams O/U Runs Terms Wager $ Edge % W/L Net $
tex@cle U 8.5 100 20.00 67 W 20.00
bal@tam U 9.5 -110 22.00 37 L -22.00
laa@chw U 8.5 -105 21.00 26 W 20.00
sea@nyy U 9.5 -105 21.00 32 L -21.00
ari@atl U 9.0 -120 24.00 63 W 20.00
Total wagered: 108.00 Total net: 17.00

We have 6 wagers today at Intertops, 5 unders and 1 over.

Teams O/U Runs Terms Wager $ Edge %
laa@cws U 8.0 -110 22.00 63
bos@oak U 8.5 -115 23.00 32
nym@col U 9.5 -125 25.00 55
cin@sdg O 8.0 100 20.00 29
phi@hou U 9.0 -105 21.00 28
bal@tam U 7.5 100 20.00 29
Total wagered: 131.00  
baseball, free picks

Baseball Bets Posted for May 24

I’ve posted today’s baseball bets that I made at Intertops. There are 5 games today that I like the under on.

Teams O/U Runs Terms Wager $ Edge %
ari@atl U 9.0 -120 24.00 63
sea@nyy U 9.5 -105 21.00 32
laa@chw U 8.5 -105 21.00 26
bal@tam U 9.5 -110 22.00 37
tex@cle U 8.5 100 20.00 67
Total wagered: 108.00  

Yesterday was a tough day; I went 3-6, with two of my wagers losing by a single run. However, when betting baseball, it is important to keep in mind that you are looking to achieve a winning percentage over weeks and months, not days. While it is always nice to have a winning day, there will be days when things just don’t go your way and you lose more than you win.

Prior Day’s Bets

Teams O/U Runs Terms Wager $ Edge % W/L Net $
laa@chw U 9.0 -110 22.00 62 W 20.00
kan@tor U 7.0 -105 21.00 26 L -21.00
tex@cle U 9.0 -105 21.00 58 L -21.00
min@det U 9.5 -110 22.00 49 L -22.00
cin@sdg U 7.5 -125 25.00 55 W 20.00
nym@col U 10.0 -100 20.00 59 L -20.00
phi@hou U 10.5 -105 21.00 48 W 20.00
ari@atl U 9.5 -115 23.00 47 L -23.00
chc@pit U 9.0 -120 24.00 41 L -24.00
Total wagered: 199.00 Total net: -71.00
baseball, free picks, MLB, sportsbook

Baseball Bets Posted for May 24

I’ve posted today’s baseball bets that I made at Intertops. There are 5 games today that I like the under on.

Teams O/U Runs Terms Wager $ Edge %
ari@atl U 9.0 -120 24.00 63
sea@nyy U 9.5 -105 21.00 32
laa@chw U 8.5 -105 21.00 26
bal@tam U 9.5 -110 22.00 37
tex@cle U 8.5 100 20.00 67
Total wagered: 108.00  

Yesterday was a tough day; I went 3-6, with two of my wagers losing by a single run. However, when betting baseball, it is important to keep in mind that you are looking to achieve a winning percentage over weeks and months, not days. While it is always nice to have a winning day, there will be days when things just don’t go your way and you lose more than you win.

Prior Day’s Bets

Teams O/U Runs Terms Wager $ Edge % W/L Net $
laa@chw U 9.0 -110 22.00 62 W 20.00
kan@tor U 7.0 -105 21.00 26 L -21.00
tex@cle U 9.0 -105 21.00 58 L -21.00
min@det U 9.5 -110 22.00 49 L -22.00
cin@sdg U 7.5 -125 25.00 55 W 20.00
nym@col U 10.0 -100 20.00 59 L -20.00
phi@hou U 10.5 -105 21.00 48 W 20.00
ari@atl U 9.5 -115 23.00 47 L -23.00
chc@pit U 9.0 -120 24.00 41 L -24.00
Total wagered: 199.00 Total net: -71.00