The last minute pick on the under of last night’s Boston/Seattle game was a winner, and it made me profitable for yesterday. This illustrates an important point about sports betting — you need to keep an eye on the lines of games that you are close to betting on, but are not getting the price or the terms that you need in order for the bet to have a positive expected value (EV).
Take the BOS @ SEA game for example. When I analyzed the game originally (hours before gametime), the line was u8Â -105. My analysis of the game was for 7.3 runs, which computes to an 8% edge on the u8. Since I only wager on games where I have a 25% or higher edge, I did not make a wager on the game at that time. Fifteen minutes before the game, I took another peek at the line at Intertops, and saw that it had moved to u8.5 -105, an edge of 34% on the u8.5. I made the bet, BOS won 5-3, and I won the bet. (I hope you won, too!).
I’ve posted my MLB baseball picks for Tuesday, May 27. Today, we have 4 unders.
Overall Results
| W | L | W % | Wagers $ | Net $ | ROI % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | 44 | 54.17 | 2103.25 | 75.80 | 3.6 |
Bets for May 27, 2008
| Teams | O/U | Runs | Terms | Wager $ | Edge % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| chw@cle | U | 8.0 | 100 | 20.00 | 42 |
| nyy@bal | U | 9.5 | -110 | 22.00 | 31 |
| min@kan | U | 8.5 | -110 | 22.00 | 31 |
| san@ari | U | 8.0 | -120 | 24.00 | 40 |
| Total wagered: | 88.00 | Â | |||
Prior Day’s Bets
| Teams | O/U | Runs | Terms | Wager $ | Edge % | W/L | Net $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bos@sea | U | 8.5 | -105 | 21.00 | 34 | W | 20.00 |
| tex@tam | U | 8.5 | 105 | 19.05 | 85 | L | -19.05 |
| los@chc | U | 8.5 | -105 | 21.00 | 51 | W | 20.00 |
| nyy@bal | U | 9.5 | -105 | 21.00 | 67 | W | 20.00 |
| ari@atl | U | 7.5 | -115 | 23.00 | 44 | L | -23.00 |
| Total wagered: | 105.05 | Total net: | 17.95 | ||||
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