The last minute pick on the under of last night’s Boston/Seattle game was a winner, and it made me profitable for yesterday. This illustrates an important point about sports betting — you need to keep an eye on the lines of games that you are close to betting on, but are not getting the price or the terms that you need in order for the bet to have a positive expected value (EV).
Take the BOS @ SEA game for example. When I analyzed the game originally (hours before gametime), the line was u8Â -105. My analysis of the game was for 7.3 runs, which computes to an 8% edge on the u8. Since I only wager on games where I have a 25% or higher edge, I did not make a wager on the game at that time. Fifteen minutes before the game, I took another peek at the line at Intertops, and saw that it had moved to u8.5 -105, an edge of 34% on the u8.5. I made the bet, BOS won 5-3, and I won the bet. (I hope you won, too!).
I’ve posted my MLBbaseball picks for Tuesday, May 27. Today, we have 4 unders.
The line in the BOS@SEA game has moved a 0.5 run from 8.0 to 8.5, while the terms remained at -105. This move makes this a good wager on the under, and I have added it as a last-minute wager to my MLB picks for the day (which are currently at 2-2).
I’ve posted today’s baseball bets that I made at Intertops. There are 5 games today that I like the under on.
Teams
O/U
Runs
Terms
Wager $
Edge %
ari@atl
U
9.0
-120
24.00
63
sea@nyy
U
9.5
-105
21.00
32
laa@chw
U
8.5
-105
21.00
26
bal@tam
U
9.5
-110
22.00
37
tex@cle
U
8.5
100
20.00
67
Total wagered:
108.00
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Yesterday was a tough day; I went 3-6, with two of my wagers losing by a single run. However, when betting baseball, it is important to keep in mind that you are looking to achieve a winning percentage over weeks and months, not days. While it is always nice to have a winning day, there will be days when things just don’t go your way and you lose more than you win.
I also love betting on baseball. Not too heavily, mind you… just enough to win $20 bucks on each game that I bet on.
My approach to betting on MLB focuses on pitching in an attempt to beat the over/under totals published at my favorite sportsbook, Intertops. This season, I my winning percentage is 56.34% with a 7.43% return on wagers.
I’ve decided to start publishing my baseball picks. If you’d like to use them, be my guest. You’ll find that I pick about 4 games a day, but this could be as low as 1 and as many as 10. Today, for example, I have 9 picks. Follow the link to check out my picks each day.
I wanted to let everyone know about a special All Star Game Package for Intertops customers. All customers who bet on MLB baseball from now through June 15th have the chance to win a great MLB package containing:
Two tickets for the MLB All Star Game taking place on July 15th in New York
Four days in a 4* Hotel including breakfast
Travel expenses
Every $ wager on any Baseball bet made by June 15th 2008 is one lot for the draw, so the more you bet, the better your chance to win this great prize from Intertops.
While Thursday’s March Madness games were pretty lame, the games on Friday were anything but. Western Kentucky University’s buzzer-beater to beat Drake was the best finish of the day. One of the most entertaining games on Friday was Davidson over Gonzaga, which featured a superb game by Stephen Curry and his amazing shotting.
Clemson’s meltdown to Villanova — Clemson was leading 36-18 at one point in the game — was particularly hard to watch for me, as I had Clemson in the finals in my bracket (which was mostly determined by coin flips).
This is a very good offer — you get up to $50 back on a losing bet at BetEd Sportsbook. Here’s the deal:
Make any 2 straight bets in any leagues on 2 different games for matchups that occur today 17 March 2008 and if the first bet is a loss, we’ll give you RISK Back! (up to $50.00)
Bets and Action must be for  today between 12:01 PM ET and 11:59 PM ET Monday, March 17th, 2008.
Only if your first wager is a loss, you must email betED Customer Service at help@betED.com before 6:00 PM ET Tuesday, March 18th, 2008 to receive the Cash Back Bonus.
There are no rollover restrictions on this bonus and it has a max value of $50.00
Just a heads-up…. many MasterCard and Visa credit cards are accepted at Interops.com — one of the few 5-star rated sites at The Online Casino Gambling Directory. Last night, I used two different Visas and a MasterCard to make deposits and they went through without a hitch.
After making a deposit at Intertops.com, you need to do a Chip Transfer to get the money into the Casino, Poker Room, or Sportsbook; you will see the Chip Transfer in the Cashier, just below the Deposit link that you just used to make the deposit. And when you want to make a withdrawal, there are a couple of options that are available; the Bank Wire works great, but there is a $30 fee that is charged by one of the banks that they use to transfer money into US bank accounts.
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