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Well, this is a first! No good MLB totals wagers today. I am leaning toward MIN @ CHW u9.5 and MIL @ COL u10.5, but the terms would have to move 5 points in my favor before this bet would have a positive expected value (EV). If the MIN @ CHW game moves from u9.5 -110 to -115, then I’d take that bet. Also, if the MIL @ COL game moves from u10.5 -115 to -110, I’d take that bet as well.
One of the reasons that my model did not generate any totals bets is due to the weather. As a rule of thumb, add 1/2 run when the game time temperature approaches 90F, and subtract 1/2 run when the game time temperature approaches 55F. There are six games today that are being played where it is pretty hot today, and adding the 1/2 run to these games’ totals resulted in a “no bet” for several of these games.
I read this rule of thumb regarding game time temperature in an excellent book Betting Baseball 2008 by Michael Murray. I also get MLB weather from VegasInsider.com.
Here are today’s picks, made moments ago at Intertops.
| Teams |
O/U |
Runs |
Terms |
Wager $ |
Edge % |
| sea@bos |
U |
9.0 |
-110 |
22.00 |
41 |
| bal@tor |
U |
8.5 |
100 |
20.00 |
59 |
| tam@tex |
U |
9.5 |
-125 |
25.00 |
63 |
| min@cws |
U |
8.5 |
-105 |
21.00 |
53 |
| mil@col |
U |
9.0 |
-110 |
22.00 |
33 |
| laa@oak |
U |
7.0 |
100 |
20.00 |
31 |
| Total wagered: |
130.00 |
 |
I’ve continued to post my MLB totals picks each day. Overall, I am 75-70 (51.72% winning percentage), for a net loss of $31.28 (-0.97% return on investment).
This briings to mind a point to consider if you read on the internet about a guy whose sports handicapping system is “9-3 in his last 12 SOLID LOCK PICKS†(or some similar claim). The point is this: Your record is irrelvant. What is relevant is your return on investment — how much money these picks made relative to the size of the bets that one had to make to win the money.
Here’s an illustration of my point: Suppose a handicapper claims to have a 9-3 record in his last 12. This could easily have resulted in a net loss if each of his picks was a heavy favorite, say -300 or worse. In fact, if each of his picks were at an average of -300, a 9-3 record is break even, and actually will have cost you money once you factor in the price of making deposits and withdrawals at some online sportsbooks.
I’d really love to see handicappers post their return on investment, rather than their win-loss record, when touting a sports betting system.
Calling all online slots lovers — the Microgaming network has rolled out three more new slots this month.
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- Lucky Shot -Â Take a swing at winning big with this golf-themed video slot. 5 reels, 20 paylines, scatters, multipliers, bonus roud, free spins.
These slots are being rolled out at all Microgaming casinos, but are not yet available at all of them. I know that they are available at both Grand Mondial (they offer $2008 free to try out their casino) and Intertops. Over the course of the month, you can try these games for free at any of the Microgaming sites that offer free cash for signing up with them and downloading their software!
(Please note: Microgaming casinos do not accept players from the following US states: IL, IN, LA, MI, NJ, NV, NY, OR, SD, WA, WI.)
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